What the stats entry is saying is that the most common entries occur
about 75000 times apiece (0.00166667 * 45e6), which is what's scaring
the planner here ;-). I think those frequencies are artificially high
though. The default statistics sample size is 3000 rows (300 *
statistics target, actually), so those numbers correspond to 5 or 4
rows in the sample, which is probably just random chance.
Try increasing the stats targets for this table to 100, then re-ANALYZE
and see what you get. The most_common_freqs entries might drop as much
as a factor of 10.
regards, tom lane